tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post3712865641176051954..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: Zito: Good So Far, Actually and Relativelyobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-87200304991559523792009-04-29T09:43:00.000-07:002009-04-29T09:43:00.000-07:00I should have wrote "... that would be great to ha...I should have wrote "... that would be great to have up top of any rotation, let alone in the back of the rotation."obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-25033663355349899152009-04-29T09:40:00.000-07:002009-04-29T09:40:00.000-07:00Finally, people are listening! (Thanks for the li...Finally, people are listening! (Thanks for the link, BTW!) I have been writing since Zito was signed that he does not have to be the top pitcher in the rotation in order for his contract to be good.<br /><br />First, I have some problems with some things said in the article. <br /><br />Really, "Zito only cracked 15 wins once"? I thought we bloggers have advanced enough that we don't go to that old-fashioned "Wins is good" mantra. <br /><br />And "four seasons of mediocrity"? Those four seasons were ERA's of 3.30, 4.48, 3.86, and 3.83, or ERA+ of 134, 101, 113, 116, which are very good ERA+, not mediocre.<br /><br />In 2003, he was 7th out of 41 qualifiers among 14 teams. That roughly made him a #1 starter in AL that season.<br /><br />In 2004, he was 20th out of 44 qualifiers among 14 teams. That roughly made him a #2 starter in AL that season.<br /><br />In 2005, he was 20th out of 45 qualifiers among 14 teams. That roughly made him a #2 starter in AL that season.<br /><br />In 2006, he was 10th among 40 qualifiers among 14 teams. That roughly made him a #1 starter in the AL that season.<br /><br />That is hardly mediocre.<br /><br />In addition, he is not governed by DIPS. A study by Tom Tippett showed that there are many classes of pitchers who outdo what DIPS says most pitchers cannot do, and Zito is clearly part of the "crafty lefty" category who are able to keep their BABIP low, which offsets both their high walks and low strikeouts, relatively.<br /><br />The problem for Zito is that instead of using his talents the way he knew how to, he was mentally thinking through everything (yes, he is not as zen as he seems), and he basically regressed to being in Little League, when you seize up and do poorly because you are thinking through everything instead of letting your muscle memory take over and do what you know you can do.<br /><br />As I noted in my analysis long ago, based on salary trends, Barry will only be paid like an ace this season, and more like a middle rotation guy for all the other seasons (though given the slowing economy, the growth rates probably don't hold and he'll be ace-paid for the next couple of seasons, at least). <br /><br />Still, given that low bar, he has still not performed up to par. He was a middle rotation in 2007, back-end in 2008, but we still have five more seasons and he has a nice start this season, particularly since he's normally a slow starter. <br /><br />As I noted starting last season, when he is throwing strikes and getting strikeouts, he's a good pitcher. He can throw strikes more readily when his velocity is in the high 80's. I was just hoping for 87 MPH, but he's been regularly in the 87-89 MPH range, so he's actually been better than I hoped.<br /><br />His BABIP has been .286, which would seem regularly or even low to some strict DIP's followers, but his career BABIP is .268, so he's actually suffering from some bad luck (Tom Tango's study showed that it takes about 7 seasons worth of data to be able to say that a pitcher's BABIP is statistically significantly below the .300 mark that most pitchers bounce around. He's a crafty lefty, only he hasn't been so crafty the past couple of years with us, until the end of the 2008 season.<br /><br />Hopefully he can continue to do this well, it would be great if he can achieve a mid-3 ERA (ERA's in AL is inflated by DH, so his actually should have gone down in the NL) but even if it was around 4, that would be great to have in the back of any rotation, let alone up top.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-89253344009957899802009-04-29T08:11:00.000-07:002009-04-29T08:11:00.000-07:00Re_Zito:
Teddy Mitrosilis just wrote an article o...Re_Zito:<br /><br />Teddy Mitrosilis just wrote an article on this on MVN, saying that Zito could still be a capable number 4/5. While he will never live up to that contract, he might be a nice boost, overpaid or not.<br /><br />http://mvn.com/aroundthemajors/2009/04/zito-not-so-zen-but-can-still-make-peace-in-the-bay.html<br /><br />Bumgarner=dirty, by the way. The Giants really do have the making of an excellent pitching staff.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-62099934573871019392009-04-25T09:44:00.000-07:002009-04-25T09:44:00.000-07:00Man, I agree 1,000%! He's not just back on his ga...Man, I agree 1,000%! He's not just back on his game, though, but raised things a level, I mean, double digit strikeouts and I think he only gave up one walk the two games, that is dealing! <br /><br />Yes, it is great that he righted himself so quickly this time, it took him about a month the only other time he has struggled.<br /><br />Though I suppose Daddio probably was viewing his video for clues as well.<br /><br />And, really, how unusual is that to be able to say, in basically his third season that there's only really been two times in his career that he has struggled?obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-17599044959218785912009-04-24T23:20:00.000-07:002009-04-24T23:20:00.000-07:00Lincecum was dealing. It's great that he is back ...Lincecum was dealing. It's great that he is back on his game. With his weird delivery it's up to him to figure out any kinks in his mechanics himself and it's a great sign that he was able to right himself so quickly.matt mongiellonoreply@blogger.com