tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post3566325721341733804..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: 2014 Arbitration Cases: 3 Down, 2 to Goobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-24945652718947120432014-01-23T15:43:10.525-08:002014-01-23T15:43:10.525-08:00Arias signed: http://www.csnbayarea.com/giants/so...Arias signed: http://www.csnbayarea.com/giants/source-giants-hand-multi-year-deal-valuable-bench-piece<br /><br />Two years, $2.6M plus performance incentives (probably related to number of games played). The $1.3M per season worked out to the mid-point of the Giants $1.1M offer and Arias' $1.5M ask, and this contract covers him up to his free agency eligibility. <br /><br />Typically players just sign for the mid-point with the Giants in these lower salary contract situations, but I guess Arias wanted a little more security, so while the Giants got the $1.3M they were seeking, he gets two seasons guaranteed, to give him more security.<br /><br />This is a low risk move on the Giants part, barring severe injury, he should be about the same as he was the last two seasons, and they have salary certainty now for him in 2015 as well, you never know, we could lose someone, he could step in, he'll be 29 YO this season, many players finally broke out in this age range, finally putting everything together. I know, unlikely, but just as unlikely that he'll just turn horrible too, particularly since a lot of his value is derived from his defensive abilities.<br /><br />Now only Belt to go. The more I think about this, the more I see this as similar to the Lincecum situation, where maybe they go two years, as I laid out at the end above. That would give him security, but then he could have the upside of the last two years. I hope the Giants push to buy him out of his arbitration year at minimum, and ideally buy or option his free agent years. <br /><br />I think the Allen Craig contract that I had comped against before is still apt. Craig got $1.75M in his last pre-arb year (Belt being Super-Two, would have been in his last pre-arb year, so $2.0M is about right). And he only got $2.75M in his first arb year, which is much lower than what Belt asked for, $3.5M for his Super-Two arb year. <br /><br />And Craig had much better offensive numbers overall than Belt at that similar signing point, plus MLBTR projected only $2.4M for Belt, so right now, I think the Giants are in strong position to win the decision, if Belt's side is dumb enough to push for the arbitrator's decision. So they would be smart to work some sort of longer term deal with the Giants, where he gets security and the Giants get to control him. But since he wants so much, have to think we can only get two years, not the four plus that I would prefer.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.com