tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post3355893492991755531..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: 2011 Giants Draft: Mock Drafts 2.0obsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-46481949256966505512011-06-05T18:18:26.102-07:002011-06-05T18:18:26.102-07:00Great rundown. I'm excited for the draft and t...Great rundown. I'm excited for the draft and to see what will happen. I love the pitching in this draft and I'm hoping the Giants can get a good arm at the 29th slot. Another guy I like is Kolten Wong, but I'm not sure if Wong will be available. It seems like the Rays will take him, mainly because they have three picks in the first round.<br /><br />I was definitely intrigued by your Sanchez conversation with Dr. B. I agree a lot with your ideas about Sanchez. As much as I like him, I think he could produce a lot of value in a trade, and I think the Giants could bolster their farm system (though like you said, I don't think it's as bad as some people think). I think with a Sanchez trade, with the combination of this talent-heavy draft, would do a lot of good for the Giants' future. However, the whole "win now" argument does put Sabean in a tough situation, and a Sanchez trade could infuriate some fans, though in reality, Sanchez really is one of the best trading chips the Giants currently have.Kevin O'Brienhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00114732419318117049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-55338232909350919162011-06-02T10:18:57.267-07:002011-06-02T10:18:57.267-07:00Thanks for pointing out John Barr's MO of draf...Thanks for pointing out John Barr's MO of drafting former first rounders (mainly college guys, right?) who fell due to a poor season. I would add Roger Kieschnick and Conor Gillaspie too, and maybe Chris Dominguez and Jason Stoffel as well.<br /><br />Thanks for the tip on Zach Cone. I'm also wondering if the Giants will draft Andrew Barbosa one more time in the draft, I recall that they reportedly drafted him a number of times already (OK, 2006, 2007, 2010). He spurned us last season to pitch one more season, so he'll be stuck with the Giants if they draft him again, I can't imagine him being draftable again (maybe as free agent if he don't sign?).obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-91969838387118654862011-06-02T09:53:15.145-07:002011-06-02T09:53:15.145-07:00I was amazed by the 800 player draft board. I wou...I was amazed by the 800 player draft board. I would love to see their player evaluation process and how they can formulate such a ranking. There is only so much discussion that can be done to do such a ranking, there has to be some mechanical way of speeding that up.<br /><br />And WOW, that means that they can select players off this board at least to the 25th round, give or take, which is half way through the draft, and probably are able to draft someone off that list to somewhere in the 30's round.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-38258552623178283762011-06-02T09:50:00.533-07:002011-06-02T09:50:00.533-07:00Thanks for pointing out the sfgiants.com article, ...Thanks for pointing out the sfgiants.com article, that was pretty good. Here is the URL for those too lazy to go there: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110601&content_id=19905274&vkey=news_sf&c_id=sf&partnerId=rss_sf<br /><br />I too was drawn to his top 15 comment. I think both your first point about being willing to sign someone overslot and your second point about someone nobody likes as much holds.<br /><br />In the past, they have often drafted prospects earlier than what BA's Top 200 ranking would suggest. So that fits in with your second point.<br /><br />About the first point, that, to me, harkens to my comment above about Neukom telling Sabean to come to him with baseball deals and let him figure out the finances. They seem to have a bucket of prospect money available, as they have signed big money internationally before, and you can't really plan for that without setting aside money to do just that. Same to some degree with the draft.<br /><br />So assuming they have the money available anyway, they should be able to draft anyone they believe to be one of the top 15 prospects, per your first point.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-1641791337437114532011-06-02T09:38:17.868-07:002011-06-02T09:38:17.868-07:00The way I see it, the decision regarding trading S...The way I see it, the decision regarding trading Sanchez involves how much the Giants want to win going forward.<br /><br />If they keep him, they are trying to win now, but risking a large decline once he leaves after the 2012 season, as we have no guarantee that Wheeler or Surkamp will make the jump to the majors at that point, nor that Vogelsong can provide similar production. <br /><br />However, they could make a professional determination that they can, at which point it becomes a less riskier decision to trade him to get prospects who will provide cheap production going forward 2-3 years hence. <br /><br />In other words, do the Giants want to strike while the iron is hot or do they want to build a dynasty that will last? If they were a iron striker, they could have made so many trades. For example, think Wheeler and/or Belt couldn't have allowed them to pick up another good bat late 2010 season to give them a push?<br /><br />So I have to think that they are looking for a dynasty now and that to me means you actively look to trade Sanchez but only if you can come to the decision that trading him makes baseball sense, trading some current production (and hoping someone can replace) while boosting the farm system for the long run.<br /><br />That's why I always use the Dan Haren trade as my example, the A's got a boatload of prospects that refilled their declining farm system that fell barren from so many years of playoff contention. As many noted this season, beyond Belt and Wheeler, most did not think the Giants have a very deep farm system (I disagreed, liking Brown, Noonan, Surkamp, Hembree, RafRod in the pre-season) and the way to refill that would be to engineer such a big trade.<br /><br />Again, we won't get something as big as A's got because Haren had a longer contract and possibility of resigning, but if we can get one good position prospect and one good pitching prospect for Dirty, ready to contribute in 1-2 years, plus a couple of mid-tier prospects, I think that would be a pretty good haul.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-79886259953049656182011-06-02T09:21:38.230-07:002011-06-02T09:21:38.230-07:00Thank you for your excellent comments, DrB, I appr...Thank you for your excellent comments, DrB, I appreciate them.<br /><br />I generally agree about Sabean's MO, but a change for him was last year's trade of Bengie Molina to clear way for Posey.<br /><br />Admittedly, nobody of Posey's stature is sitting ready in the minors right now, but I can see Surkamp and potentially Wheeler reaching that level by the end of the season, freeing Sabean to trade Sanchez in the off-season, at the latest.<br /><br />Also, the Giants have been pretty confident about the players they have control over (and thus know a lot about), and should Vogelsong convince the team that he's ready to produce consistently like this, at least for the rest of this season, plus they believe that Surkamp/Wheeler would be ready by mid-2012 at latest, then once Zito is back, they could potentially trade Sanchez at that point, to clear space for this transition and to gain cheap prospects for production in 2-4 years. They have traded players before to clear spots for younger players before.<br /><br />Your point about winning this season does resonate with me, and that is why I am now thinking that they would have to make the determination that Vogelsong has the stuff to take over for Sanchez before taking the next step of kicking tires and seeing what they might get for Dirty on the trade market.<br /><br />One key thing I would point out about Bowtie's regime is that he asked that Sabean bring to him good baseball deals and let Bowtie worry about the finances. And that is one thing I think people forget when I'm talking about trading Sanchez, is that they won't make the move unless it makes baseball sense. Which implies that they have made the determination that they can reasonably replace Dirty's production while also getting prospects that will help the future.<br /><br />And that is a key, I think, point to this whole discussion. The Giants, unlike the image they are portrayed as, have been focused on the post-Bonds era to a greater degree than generally thought. If they really wanted to win with Bonds, they could have traded Cain to pick up somebody in 2004 to improve their chances to win it all that season.<br /><br />If they really wanted to win during the losing years, they could have traded away more of their promising players percolating upward, like Dirty as well as Cain, to get a player who could have helped that specific season or two.<br /><br />Instead, they have held to their "Keep List" philosophy, where they held onto the players that they wanted to keep. That is why the team is so farm-system-centric and not so much free agent signings.<br /><br />And with Surkamp and Wheeler looking like they could be ready sometime in 2012, they could open a spot for them by trading Sanchez, but only if it made baseball sense, meaning, to me, that they can still get into the playoffs this season with projected personnel and performance, plus get young prospects to fuel future growth.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-65648371315709003502011-06-02T07:28:14.184-07:002011-06-02T07:28:14.184-07:00There was a small piece of interesting insight int...There was a small piece of interesting insight into how the Giants set up for the draft over on sfgiants.com. They have an 800 player draft board ranked in order and take the top player at each draft slot. John Barr made the comment that he is very sure that at least one of the players ranked in their top 15 will drop to them. That can mean one of two things: 1. The Giants are willing to pay over slot for a player who drops to them due to signability issues. 2. The Giants have at least one player ranked in their to 15 who no one else likes that much. Intriguing!<br /><br />One more thought: One characteristic of the John Barr era is the Giants using rounds 2-4 to take college players who were ranked near the top of in pre-season rankings but whose stock dropped after poor junior seasons. Brandon Crawford was one such pick and Jarrett Parker another. Here's a name in a similar situation this year: Zach Cone of Georgia.DrBGiantsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699322384438591979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-39963151372371242682011-06-02T07:16:37.160-07:002011-06-02T07:16:37.160-07:00I agree with the basic principle of using an impen...I agree with the basic principle of using an impending FA pitcher like Sanchez to leverage more young talent. I just don't see Sabes doing that as long as the Giants are in contention. That is going to be THE key issue as the young Giants starters approach free agency. How Sabes handles it will be the biggest test of his tenure as GM. I have no idea how it will turn out. His history suggests he will place the priority on winning now which may not be the best way to handle it. Maybe Bowtie Neuks has instilled a slightly more long range philosophy?DrBGiantsfanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699322384438591979noreply@blogger.com