tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post3012823809329728639..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: Aurila vs. Klesko and the Closer Situationobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-60892966679571199872007-05-21T17:48:00.000-07:002007-05-21T17:48:00.000-07:00Nothing to be sorry about.I think an important poi...Nothing to be sorry about.<BR/><BR/>I think an important point is what the relievers are doing now vs. how they started. Yeah, the relievers started off badly, but they could also be victims of small sample bias. It is nice if they did well to start and continued, but if they started poorly, how are they doing now? Are they at least doing well now? <BR/><BR/>In May,<BR/><BR/>Correia: 1.09 WHIP, .114 BAA<BR/>Hennessey: 1.23 WHIP, .250 BAA<BR/>Taschner: 1.43 WHIP, .222 BAA<BR/>Chulk: 1.20 WHIP, .243 BAA<BR/>Sanchez: 1.89 WHIP, .240 BAA<BR/>Benitez: 1.29 WHIP, .235 BAA<BR/>Kline: 3.00 WHIP, .435 BAA<BR/><BR/>So for the most part, the relievers have been pretty good at keep hitters off base, except for Sanchez and Kline. Sanchez has been wild and probably will be the one dropped to minors for Ortiz, which should further help the bullpen. Kline appears to be a victim of bad luck, balls falling in that are usually caught. Most pitchers have a BABIP of around .300 (select few are able to keep it down in the .2's) and his BABIP for May is .450, so he's just suffering from extreme bad luck right now.<BR/><BR/>So yeah, the relievers might have bad overall stats, but they are skewed by a bad start and a couple of relievers doing poorly. Sure, maybe May is the month that is the unusual month, not April, but neither can you say that the bullpen is definitively "terrible" yet. <BR/><BR/>Another important point is that the key relievers that we need to be doing well, are: Correia, Hennessey, Taschner, Benitez. <BR/><BR/>That's more important than having good overall reliever numbers, as bad stats by the long relief could skew the overall numbers and mask the good performance by the closer and setup guys.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-74405886197898337302007-05-20T18:37:00.000-07:002007-05-20T18:37:00.000-07:00Giants pen thru Sat:.290 BA.444 OB%Don't have time...Giants pen thru Sat:<BR/><BR/>.290 BA<BR/>.444 OB%<BR/>Don't have time to do SLG%<BR/><BR/>Sorry, but I think those numbers are 'terrible.' <BR/><BR/>The Giants are at the top in quality starts, and this pen has to be much, much better to pick up the offence.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-74336830749793171142007-05-18T14:27:00.000-07:002007-05-18T14:27:00.000-07:00Regarding the name calling above, call me Pollyann...Regarding the name calling above, call me Pollyanna or whatever, but regular longtime readers know that I try to point out both the good and the bad, and not be relentlessly positive, like a Pollyanna - if there are bad I will point them out, like how Lowry was struggling most of last season.<BR/><BR/>I try to be as objective as I can be. Point out the good stuff when things are going bad, point out the cautionary things when things are going good, try to have a realistic view of where the Giants are and where they are going. Keep an even keel.<BR/><BR/>That is what I want for myself and what I try to present here in my posts.<BR/><BR/>Unfortunately, when things have been mainly bad for a few years, you end up looking at a lot of silver linings...<BR/><BR/>I try to enjoy the good times when they come and accept the bad times knowing that eventually good times should return. That served me well during the 70's and 80's and I've been greatly enjoying Sabean's GM years, good and bad. It's a good life philosophy as well.<BR/><BR/>Despite all the bad times of the past few years, I've never said during that time that the Giants were anything more than a .500 team lucky to be in a division where that will keep you in the hunt. A Pollyanna would be saying they are going all the way, no doubt about it.<BR/><BR/>Still, if you are in the hunt, why not go for it? You never know when a Gene Tenace-type performance will happen for you in the playoffs and carry you to a championship.<BR/><BR/>Even this year I've said that most probably it is another .500 year, unless the pitching can pitch like they had shown they were capable of doing before, that is, all pitch at around 4.00 ERA or less. The offense certainly will never carry us and while you cannot win without a good bullpen, a good bullpen won't ever win for you on their own, they are just an important cog.<BR/><BR/>And I was scoffed at above for thinking the bullpen was good enough, but Hennessey and Correia were very good last year in relief, Kline was good, and Sanchez did well. <BR/><BR/>In addition, if Benitez was really healthy, he can be a very good and useful pitcher, you just have to accept that he's going to blow some games and treat it like it's no big deal or do some other inappropriate thing. Just be glad he should be gone after this season, at the latest. <BR/><BR/>Also, I was encouraged by Taschner's learning his lesson by not being prepared to start the 2006 season and thus lose the job he thought he had in the bag, then going down, turn things around and doing well, then closing and enjoying doing that. He's a fighter and I thought before the season that he would be good for setup and perhaps closer if things went bad fast with Benitez and Wilson. <BR/><BR/>Lastly, Chulk has had his moments as a reliever, both here and at Toronto; he's no Accardo, but if he was, they wouldn't have traded Hillenbrand to us. But Chulk can be a very nice cog in the bullpen when he is doing well, and I think Bochy is the guy to get such a performance out of him.<BR/><BR/>This is no shut them down San Diego type of bullpen, so if you want to lament about that, I guess it is your perogative, but I think that they are a nice group, who can do well enough for us, particularly in the key roles of closer and setup, and they are cheap for the most part, particularly after Benitez goes free agent, and should only get better over the next few years. <BR/><BR/>They are young, you need to expect blips along the way, that is the price of youth, unless you rather Sabean had spent big money getting back Stanton or other experienced relievers who were free agents last year. I'm glad he didn't chose that route because it allowed them to sign Bonds and Zito.<BR/><BR/>Blown losses are going to happen, no matter how good the bullpen is, but overall I think they have been doing well enough for us. Besides, unless you want to trade Lincecum (probably first name out of opposing GM's mouths when they get a call from Sabean) to fix up the bullpen to be "great", the bullpen is what it is. It is not great, but it is not this terrible mess that will kill the season, as the commenter wrote.<BR/><BR/>And if it is, in your opinion, such a killer, please list all the reasons out, that adds much more to the discussion than writing "bullpen sucks", any monkey can do that. Please lay out your logic if you are going to bother to post something like that, perhaps I'm missing something, won't be the first or last time.<BR/><BR/>But a post like that doesn't add anything, it reminds me of when this male streaker ran across the stage of the Oscars in the 70's, it just disrupted the flow and didn't add anything. It would have been better if it never happened, as it was not very interesting at all.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-8374265059599875282007-05-18T01:12:00.000-07:002007-05-18T01:12:00.000-07:00About Frandsen, I think he should get 3 starts a w...About Frandsen, I think he should get 3 starts a week: once at 2B, once at SS, once at 3B. Keeps all of them fresh and on their toes.<BR/><BR/>I can forgo one start and make it either SS or 3B, with Aurilia taking it, but I would still prefer 3 starts because we need to see how he does with more play. We need to see if he is more than just a utility guy.<BR/><BR/>So we use him like we did Feliz a couple of years ago and give him a lot of ABs. Maybe we can even give him a game or two in LF.<BR/><BR/>We need to see if he's capable of hitting as a starter because we have SS and 3B open in 2008. Vizquel we might want to re-sign but if Frandsen can hit OK, I would rather we start him at 3B instead of re-signing Feliz. How, this is complicated as what if Feliz finally figures out how to hit and Vizquel continues to show his age? Perhaps Frandsen at SS and Feliz at 3B?<BR/><BR/>Anyway, these questions are non-starters if we don't know if Frandsen can start.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-21090335529018600422007-05-18T01:06:00.000-07:002007-05-18T01:06:00.000-07:00Anon, Hillenbrand had an OPS+ of 105 over the 4+ s...Anon, Hillenbrand had an OPS+ of 105 over the 4+ seasons before we acquired him; this is position adjusted in baseball-reference.com. It is not great but it is certainly not terrible.<BR/><BR/>And leaving the questionable language out of the comments or I'll do something about it.<BR/><BR/>And the bullpen saved today's game.<BR/><BR/>Barton, thanks for great comments. My point about Klesko is that I expect him to have a high OBP, the key reason I thought he was a good acquisition was that Bochy said he was back, which meant power, which means he could produce at a 1B-level SLG and be a good replacement for Bonds on his rest days. But his power has sucked thus far. Though with a high OBP, "he is hitting OK." I was hoping for a 900+ OPS.<BR/><BR/>But I get your point, 864 is pretty good in any case, just not what I was hoping for.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the info and comments, Allfrank. Here is what I collected on the relievers, April vs. May:<BR/><BR/>Player: Apr ERA/WHIP/BAA May<BR/>Benitez: 2.00/1.44/.229 7.36/1.64/.286<BR/>Chulk: 4.14/1.73/.361 3.38/1.13/.214<BR/>Correia: 5.59/1.24/.282 3.00/1.00/.107<BR/>Hennessey: 2.79/0.93/.272 3.38/1.32/.286<BR/>Kline: 3.38/1.32/.300 4.15/2.08/.381<BR/>Sanchez: 5.40/1.92/.290 6.23/1.85/.278<BR/>Taschner: 6.00/1.33/.158 1.69/1.13/.200<BR/><BR/>As you can see, generally either the reliever did better in May or continued to do well. Of the ones not doing well in May, Benitez blew up in May and Sanchez, frankly, never had it this season. He should really go down to AAA, basically once Ortiz comes off. <BR/><BR/>Based on this data, I would say that the bullpen has generally improved from April to May.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-58246128139887231672007-05-17T21:44:00.000-07:002007-05-17T21:44:00.000-07:00This was a great post, Martin. And Barton, you ma...This was a great post, Martin. And Barton, you make some excellent observations.<BR/> There really is too much to respond to here. (But I'll try).<BR/> 1) Our corners. I think Boch is doing pretty good at playing the hot hand. I was glad to see him start Klesko 2 nights in a row, against 2 RHs in Houston. True, both Ray and Richie hav e cooled off, but that happens during a season. Overall, we've gotten much better production from the corner spots than last year. And I'm glad, Martin, you noted that Feliz has been quite productive this month. I, too would like to see Frandsen get more - and more regular ABs - but that is easier said than done. I do think he is last in line after Feliz, Aurilia, and Klesko. I think Bochy should only have Richie play 3b twice a week, then (assuming there are 4 games left) play Feliz 3X and Frandsen 1X, but give Frandsen 1 start per week, one week at 2b, the next at SS.<BR/> I do not think the pen is a problem. The pen is good enough to keep Misch (and his 2.23 ERA, .96 WHIP, 34 K, 8 BB in 32.1 IP) in Fresno. It is my impression (and I don't have the stat site to do the research) that the pen has been improving. As I pointed out in another post, they lost 3 out of the first 8 losses, but only 3 out of the last 12. I think if you plot the ERA of the pen igt has steadily come down - whereas, the SP ERA was low to begin with, then rose over a span of about 10 games, but has been dropping over the past week. I also think this is to be expected. This is Bochy's first year with this pen, and he has to get to know his pitcher's, find out when, where, and against whom they do best. I think the pen will continue to improve.allfrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03603053163603458876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-28233663033295164692007-05-17T14:19:00.000-07:002007-05-17T14:19:00.000-07:00A different angle on the game results:We've lost s...A different angle on the game results:<BR/><BR/>We've lost seven games by one run (and we've only won five). The G-men are built to win games with overpowering pitching, which is meant to make up for a mediocre offense still dependent on Bonds.<BR/><BR/>I'd argue that small ball becomes especially important on a team like ours; we simply can't afford to lose 2-1 when Cain pitches one game and then win 8-1 the next game, meaning that big innings are weighted less and manufacturing runs weighted more.<BR/><BR/>Bochy (who likes to move runners) and Roberts are a great additions to a team of young, strong pitchers. But we need a strong bullpen to compete in tight, low-scoring games and to keep the confidence up in young pitchers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-31382151294458550862007-05-17T13:19:00.000-07:002007-05-17T13:19:00.000-07:00Actually, the bull pen is not the problem. Martin...Actually, the bull pen is not the problem. Martin, I took your challenge and looked at actual game results. (I've also posted this on McC Chrons', BTS). But I looked back at the actual box and line scores for the 12 games we've lost (out of 19) since our winning streak, including the 3 game sweep at Az. Unfortunately, I don't have time right now to detail the results. But the findings are that the offense is responsible for 2 of the losses, the BP responsible for 4 of the losses, and the starting pitching responsible for 6 losses (with Bochy possibly responsible for one SP loss by sending Morris out for the 7th in AZ where he promptly gave up 2 ERs in an eventual 4-5 loss).allfrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03603053163603458876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-50814951086286117622007-05-17T12:24:00.000-07:002007-05-17T12:24:00.000-07:00You Write: "He (Klesko) is hitting an OK .333/.419...You Write: "He (Klesko) is hitting an OK .333/.419/.444/.864 in May thus far."<BR/><BR/>Well, .333/.419/.444 is a pretty sensational line of hitting. I'd take a lineup of like hitters any day.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-17017871484028259812007-05-17T09:22:00.000-07:002007-05-17T09:22:00.000-07:00Hillenbrand is an was terrrible.Terrible hitter (h...Hillenbrand is an was <B>terrrible</B>.<BR/>Terrible hitter (http://tinyurl.com/27667x), worse fielder (it'll be on the same page.<BR/><BR/>And only Pollyanna, or Dead-Eye Dick could think this bullpen is anything but a season killer. <BR/><BR/>Unidentified problems only get worse.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-91304144312404885962007-05-17T09:08:00.000-07:002007-05-17T09:08:00.000-07:00Re: Aurilia vs. KleskoI totally agree. During the...Re: Aurilia vs. Klesko<BR/>I totally agree. During the first month, the incumbent (Pedro) got the benefit of the doubt for a month at third. That relegated Klesko and Aurilia to first. Aurilia was hot in April, so of course he gets the nod over Klesko.<BR/><BR/>Now, Pedro's hitting pretty decently. He's actually taking walks, and he's not striking out as much. He's still got a little problem with trying to pull the ball, but you can't win all the battles at once. At least it seems he's seeing the ball better now.<BR/><BR/>So that leads back to Aurilia and Klesko playing first. Klesko is slowly seeing more time, but primarily because Aurilia hasn't been as effective.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Re: Closers<BR/>I, too, am of the group that is against Lincecum closing. I just think it's a waste of his talent. Once he really settles in, he (like Cain) will become practically-guaranteed to keep the team in the game (allowing 1 to 3 runs) each time he's out there. Why mess with that? <BR/><BR/>So who then? I really think Hennessey should get the nod. Even though he doesn't have the stuff (or the look) of a prototypical closer, he's got lots of stuff. He's got all kinds of pitches, and usually, he's able to throw them for strikes. Thats all you really want from a closer: someone who can throw strikes, and subsequently get outs.<BR/><BR/>Upgrading Hennessey to the closers role would put a dent in the setup role. Taschner and Hennessey have done a solid job there recently. Messing with that could be detrimental to the team. This is why I'm intrigued by the thought of Russ Ortiz closing. His walk rates scare the life out of me, though. The only thing he'd have over Armando is stuff (at least consistency of it).<BR/><BR/>It's an interesting scenario to ponder. To say the very least.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Re: Bochy Ball<BR/>So far, I'm fairly pleased with most of what he's done as well. I think the team's main problems stem from run scoring and holding leads. <BR/><BR/>I know the bullpen hasn't lost all of the games for the team, but they've lost a pretty substantial amount. Six losses at the very least, which is almost 33% of the team's losses. The bullpen has a set of solid ERAs. The runs just score at such inopportune times. They all walk too many batters, which is evident from the fairly high WHIP values. Correia, Taschner, and Hennessey are by far the best at limiting baserunners, and thats why they get the majority of the calls to the pen.<BR/><BR/>The offense is a little more worrisome. At least Vizquel appears to be hitting better. Randy Winn is hitting darn well. All the team needs is for Durham (who bats behind Bonds) to pick up a little. He started off the year really well, but has trailed off a ton. Perhaps Bochy could entertain flip-flopping Molina and Durham. That could be an interesting experiment.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Overall<BR/>I like the team thusfar. There have been players struggling, but the team is at a decent spot in the standings. The starters are doing an awesome job of keeping the team in the game. If the hitters can put it together at the same time, this team would start winning more. Definately not a bad time to be a Giants fan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com