tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post2532581754575652037..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: Your 2019 Giants: Pitching Staff Primed for Championshipsobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-281698110015052072018-09-30T20:26:07.471-07:002018-09-30T20:26:07.471-07:00Thanks M.C., yeah, I think people are missing on t...Thanks M.C., yeah, I think people are missing on this aspect. We'll see if the new GM can do something with this good base.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-91978444806248133562018-09-30T16:16:26.174-07:002018-09-30T16:16:26.174-07:00About McCutchen, I get your issues with his fieldi...About McCutchen, I get your issues with his fielding (yes, poor) and lack of power. I see him supplying something that we are lacking, however: ability to get on base and speed on the bases. Ideally, Duggar leads off, and Cutch would bat second, but if Duggar struggles, at least we have Cutch to lead off. As I tried to show with my post on the offense, the issue was the lack of a lead off guy that Bochy can trust, and Cutch provided that consistency in OBP. <br /><br />And the double killer was the leadoff guy followed by Panik, who struggled all season, to get on base. <br /><br />So Cutch would fill a vital role, and perhaps he'll be willing to play in LF where his poor defense would be hidden better. Let's put it this way: if the Reds can make Duvall very valuable playing LF defense, there should be some way to make Cutch just league average in LF. <br /><br />Of course, that would get in Shaw's and Slater's way of starting in LF. I'm okay with that, I'm not convinced yet about either, I would rather see Shaw prove he's learned something by mashing in AAA, then maybe the Giants might trade McCutchen mid-season, many teams can use a good OBP/OPS hitter, and AL teams could use him at DH. <br /><br />Williamson would be blocked, but again, if he's showing he can do his stuff, the Giants can trade Cutch, who would get a 2-year contract probably, given his ups and downs in recent years, and poor defense. <br /><br />But we need hitters who can get on atop our lineup, so even if we get a power hitter for RF, we need reliable guys 1-2, and Cutch can be one of them. <br /><br />And after his slow start in most of April, he had an .800 OPS for us until the trade, which is still a sign of a good hitter. But I'm not looking to him for power, I want a guy setting up the offense for the middle lineup guys. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-34927526759880569562018-09-30T16:04:42.146-07:002018-09-30T16:04:42.146-07:00I understand the concerns about the bullpen. I...I understand the concerns about the bullpen. I'm not confident that Strickland and Dyson can hold the fort as closers, and hence why I included them as tradeable relievers. <br /><br />But Strickland and Smith were at 78%, which is not far from what we got from Casilla and Romo when they were closers, basically the difference is one extra blown save. <br /><br />I still believe in the saber rationale that you want your best pitchers in when in leverage situations, so I've been okay with Romo and Casilla in there as closers, because I felt that Affeldt was our best pitcher in relief. I feel the same now with Will Smith, and even with Tony Watson in there. <br /><br />Melancon has the experience, and the history, as well as the paycheck, and while I don't think he's all the way back, I think that he was pretty good up to until September, at which point I think his lack of conditioning hurt his stamina, as his off-season was messed up by recovery from surgery, then he had all that weird stuff happening too. <br /><br />For the season, with 15 leads to defend, and he had 4 blown saves, which is roughly 74% Save%One less blown save puts him at 80%. So he's not the best, but we don't need the best to close, we need someone who can get the job done most of the time.<br /><br />I'm also hoping for a step up by Moronta, since it was his first MLB season, plus Black, and perhaps Okert, now that they seem to be over their issues with pitching, and has some MLB success that they can build upon. Particularly Okert, who was amazing in the upper minors, as I'm still worried about Black's health.<br /><br />It's not ideal, but we didn't get the full Core 4 bullpen until 2010 anyway, I think we are okay going into 2019 as a rebuilding team with a great overall bullpen (still very low ERA, and some of the blown saves are a result of a poor offense not giving the bullpen more of a lead to hold onto, you can only survive so long defending 1 run leads all the time. <br /><br />So I agree it can be better, but I think it's very doable with the starting rotation we got, and especially if Samardzija can return to normal.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-72340084489822054072018-09-30T15:46:13.763-07:002018-09-30T15:46:13.763-07:00Thanks MosesZD, always love and welcome your comme...Thanks MosesZD, always love and welcome your comments. I trust that I won't get any B.S. past you.<br /><br />I'm actually on your side regarding Samardzija. I think he can be a solid contributor to any rotation. And I still have hopes that he'll be the ace I envisioned when we signed him.<br /><br />I know that one of my flaws is that I do not take into account the probability of injury, given the age of the team, so I know I was trying to err on the side of caution with Samardzija. In addition, I felt that with his weird 2018 injury, we can't really rely on him to replicate 2016-17, even though there is a good chance he will (and good chance he has other issues; again, I'm trying to be realistic).<br /><br />On top of that, I just had the seed of this idea when I was reading about the pitchers individually, about how good each had been, I've been obviously following them via my PQS research, and when many were coming down on the 2018 Giants, it made me think, what silver linings did we get from this season.<br /><br />That's something I've tried to do since realizing that good can come from bad. Nen's deal (then Benitez), AJP trade, Zito's deal, Rowand's deal, Renteria's deal, each contributed to the bad 2005-2008 period, either with dead money or loss of talent (losing Nathan), and yet each got us down to the draft slot that enabled the Giants to be in position to select Lincecum, Bumgarner, Posey in succession. <br /><br />And once I thought of the group as a whole, especially after seeing that the Giants led the majors in ERA from June 1 on (might not anymore after today, ouch!), which was a key component of the Golden Era of 2009-2012, that was the genesis of this post.<br /><br />So I wanted to see if I could make the case of the five guys we got, without relying on Samardzija contributing anything. And I think I did.<br /><br />So anything Samardzija contributes would be even better for the team, and I'm hoping that a 6-man rotation does happen, because that means that he's healthy and performing, and because that lessens the workload on all the young, as well as the old, arms. obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-91859579012723231612018-09-30T07:22:09.822-07:002018-09-30T07:22:09.822-07:00Samardzija: He was erratic in 2017 but had 20 QS ...Samardzija: He was erratic in 2017 but had 20 QS tying him for 10th in MLB. And it was more than the #1 pitcher in something like 24 teams as the Nationals had 3 Top-10. In 2016 he had 17 QS. That tied him for 35th. <br /><br />In 2018 had he had one of those performances, he would have put him somewhere tied for 9th to 17th. So, in reality, he's not a #4/#5. He's #1/#2 talent but with erratic stuff (mistake prone) which downgrades him to a #3.<br /><br />Bullpen: It's a hot mess of guys who blow saves. With a 55.45% save percentage, no team is worse in MLB. Even the 'positives' are pretty weak when you look at how they fail under pressure. <br /><br />Melancon's arm problems have robbed us of a closer. <br /><br />Strickland's FB is hittable and he has not been able to develop a 'put away pitch.' Add in that he has been losing velocity over the years and he needs to go.<br /><br />Moronata has developed a major 'walk' problem. 5.12/9 isn't going to get the job done.<br /><br />Dyson can't handle any sort of pressure. You can only put him in if you have a non-save situation.<br /><br />That leaves us with Smith, Watson & Blach. Not even a 'Core 4' as nobody else has impressed me with the ability to make it work.<br /><br />McCutchen: Not only no, but hell no. What little he brings offensively is off-set by his incompetent fielding. What he did for the Giants this season was a disaster. Put him on the 2014 team and he's the 5th OFer at best.<br /><br />Worse, as you can see by his Yankee/Road stats, he can't hit HRs at AT&T. He's an average-power, line-drive HR hitter and that doesn't work at AT&T. You need either serious loft or serious velocity to get it out of this park and he doesn't have either at 13.4 degrees and 90MPH.<br /><br />Heck, if we could get Slater to re-tool his hit-tool and get more loft, he'd have the same 'power' potential as McCutchen. Possibly more. MosesZDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12702323080585738748noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-56076590224336049932018-09-29T14:02:39.648-07:002018-09-29T14:02:39.648-07:00I'ma gonna think about this some more...I'ma gonna think about this some more...MosesZDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12702323080585738748noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-74501717872573477882018-09-22T22:33:08.077-07:002018-09-22T22:33:08.077-07:00Not too worried about the pitching, but I am quite...Not too worried about the pitching, but I am quite worried about the hitting. I do not know what Posey, or Belt is going to bring to the table. As good as Crawford's stats were at the all star break, the regressed much more than I expected, all the way back to his career norms. Belt has yet to bring forward the seasons I expected of him. Panik started the season ablaze, and then disappeard. If fielding helps teams get to the playoffs, St.Louis certainly disproved that this year. Same pitching, giants score 100 more runs, at least this year they are in the playoffs. The giants strike out as if they had a team of power hitters, but they have singles hitters who strike out a lot. The guys like Panik that do not strike out a lot, or Posey, seem to strike out at the most inopportune times, and yielded no power. I hope Longoria will be better next year, because he was dead weight this year. Our best overall hitter was Cutch and we Jettisoned him, and we are not even trying out the shortstop prospect we garnered in return. I would like to see what he could do, because Crawford and Panik could be replaced by Avelino and Hanson. But that is unlikely. Dodgers in first today, and they played almost the entire season without their all star shortstop. Of course later in the year the temporarily replaced him with Machado. He is a guy I would like to have instead of Longoria. When the season starts we have to see how Posey, Sandoval, Belt, and Samardizjah are health wise. nomisnalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08297640472949764321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-56879976150928371442018-09-22T14:23:30.314-07:002018-09-22T14:23:30.314-07:00I'm also excited by the 2019 rotation, even wi...I'm also excited by the 2019 rotation, even with losing Cueto. Rodriguez, Suarez, Stratton, and the bullpen all made big strides. They could be very tough next season especially if Bumgarner can be out there for 30+ starts.<br />M.C. O'Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12258035192484655635noreply@blogger.com