tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post2498070109376995945..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: Your 2015 Giants: Back to Back Jackobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-44509159076511436932015-03-23T05:45:26.342-07:002015-03-23T05:45:26.342-07:00Hard to argue with you ol wise one. I would only s...Hard to argue with you ol wise one. I would only say that with ask that's happened during this run to go back to back would take an emotional push. We had so many big games and moments. They have to control their emotions. Forget the ramifications. Last year alone, so many epic moments. I mean how do we top that? So many great stories. I'd almost laugh hysterically if they repeated.Andrenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-1498476975857560882015-03-22T19:38:51.335-07:002015-03-22T19:38:51.335-07:00Here are more detailed analysis regarding my proje...Here are more detailed analysis regarding my projection on wins. I had the general outlines enough that I knew the range but this provides more detailed analysis.<br /><br />I plugged in ZiPS projections into the Lineup Calculator. I get roughly, depending on the lineup configuration, 4.05 to 4.10 runs scored per game, lower obviously with Pence out in April. I then looked at the starting pitcher's average ERA, compared that to past seasons alignments of starting pitcher's ERA, staff ERA, and staff RA. It looks like it hangs around 3.60 RA, and if Cain and Lincecum can be better, 3.45 RA.<br /><br />Plugging those in PythagPat, I get roughly 90-93 wins.<br /><br />Then on average Bochy's teams (both SD and SF) have "overachieved" to the tune of 4 games over .500 in one-run games, where the saber rule is that all managers regresses to the mean of zero (which makes some sense, for if you look over the whole of baseball, mathematically, it must end up at zero, or .500, since when one manager wins, the other loses, by one run). That's changing two losses into wins, assuming .500. Now we are at 92-95 wins.<br /><br />But since he's so far above .500 in one-run wins, while a bit under .500 in all other games, that suggests that his managerial magic adds a bit more since his teams over his career haven't been that good. Plus, in roughly 40% of his managerial seasons, he has been at 8+ wins above .500, so for a significant number of his seasons as manager, he has changed four losses, at least, into wins, which now puts us at 94-97, and if he is above 8, closer to 100 wins.<br /><br />So that is why I think 90-95 wins can be expected, and I wouldn't be surprised by 95-100. An injury could/would kill these projections. Pence being out probably takes a win away, but with Aoki leading off, that drops it to maybe half a win. But I think the talent is there, like last year, when they started the year 43-21. And if they can stay relatively healthy, 90-95 should be doable, particularly given all the good backups we have covering most spots, and most importantly, Aoki covering leadoff (and really, he should be leading much of the time), plus the probability we can find a replacement via trade if necessary, with so many players who can be trading pieces.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.com