tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post2073878930249118102..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: Media Bias Warps Fans Viewsobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-74820339959391484642011-12-12T08:55:42.724-08:002011-12-12T08:55:42.724-08:00Ah yes, the left fielder, I remember that show, ne...Ah yes, the left fielder, I remember that show, never saw PTB for Pat the Bat before, good to know, thanks.<br /><br />Yeah, well, I normally would not want a Michael Tucker, say, but he was actually a good pickup for us that season because Jeffrey Hammonds did nothing for us.<br /><br />What I tried to do there is assess who was responsible for what. I blame the owners for us getting Michael Tucker, not Sabean. That is why I get super-white-hot about the ownership. I think the way to go in baseball is to go for the top talent and sign them (like when they went after Barry Bonds), rather than go for mediocrity and breadth/coverage. That is what they did with Vlad (though to be fair, Ted Robinson claims that there was no way the Giants could sign Vlad because apparently he hated Felipe Alou, so perhaps he was not a viable option) vs. birds in the hand.<br /><br />To me, Sabean made the best decision he could given his circumstances. The odds favor you if you decide to punt a back of first round draft pick. You will be right 90% of the time, and from what I understand, teams try to assess the depth of talent in drafts, so it could be like an SAT question where you can increase your odds of a correct answer by eliminating one of the choices, maybe the Giants assessed that the talent pool wasn't that good in that draft, that would be further impetus towards punting the pick.<br /><br />Meanwhile, the money you save on the draft bonus can then be used to acquire someone useful to you now, instead of 4-6 years out.<br /><br />I see BP often attack the Giants punting by noting, "See, you can find good players like Matt Cain with that pick", without noting that the talent depth is not the same in every draft, nor without noting (because their analysts missed this in their draft analysis) that the odds of finding anyone, on average, is much like buying a raffle ticket from a local organization you are supporting, the odds are not great.<br /><br />And as I noted, there is the time element, most picks take at least 2 years to make the majors, if not 3-5 for even the semi-good prospects, so the payoff, even if it comes, don't come for a long time.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-62756659530173966352011-12-11T07:50:47.424-08:002011-12-11T07:50:47.424-08:00OGC - interesting conversation going on at DrB'...OGC - interesting conversation going on at DrB's with the pitchers.<br /><br />PTB = Pat the Bat Burrell aka "The Left Fielder" in Sabean speak. (He called him that when he was asked about "The Machine" by Tom Tolbert after the WS)<br /><br />Doesn't matter anymore for sure with the draft picks, and I agree with your analysis but I hate the players they punted for. I really like your draft study.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-74107542725523089672011-12-10T23:32:20.392-08:002011-12-10T23:32:20.392-08:00Jumping around Shankbone, looking at the this get...Jumping around Shankbone, looking at the this gets to what my draft study gets at, that any back of first round draft picks are crapshoots, at best, and that even top of first round picks are not that easy to find a good player with.<br /><br />For example, they explain that the Giants are pretty bad at first round picks with their list there, but the fact is that when there is roughly a 10% success rate (which my study found) when your team is competitive for the playoffs, there is still a 35% chance that you pick 10 duds in 10 years and there is nothing wrong with your ability at picking in the draft. It was just that your luck was not great.<br /><br />That is why I say that skipping a draft to avoid paying the draftee that big bonus is not that big a deal every once in a while. It will not greatly affect the probability that you will find a good player in the long run (or short run for that matter).<br /><br />It is called a calcuated risk. In baseball, you can never punt all your first round draft picks and not suffer from it, at some point, but when your team is competitive, odds are that you are not going to pick a good starting player any particular year that you decide to punt the pick. <br /><br />So you take the small chance that the player might be a good player and instead use the money to get a player who can contribute to your team today, using that $1M that you saved to pick up a spare useful player on the cheap in the off-season.<br /><br />Doesn't matter any more, any how, a team can't punt their pick anymore, though they are allowed to trade them (though I don't know the full details about that).obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-47872386745768117852011-12-10T23:16:47.134-08:002011-12-10T23:16:47.134-08:00PTB? Not sure what that means, Shankbone.
But I ...PTB? Not sure what that means, Shankbone.<br /><br />But I have no problem with the Rob Deer or Jack Cust types, they are valuable in their own ways.<br /><br />However, find me one OBP complainer who brings up these nuances that need to be considered when discussing players like this, I'll find you 999 where these nuances doesn't even enter the conversation. That is my problem.<br /><br />Subtlety in analysis by the masses on this point is almost non-existent.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-82274020379233423972011-12-10T12:08:00.053-08:002011-12-10T12:08:00.053-08:00Just browsing around for all the good/bad Sabean a...Just browsing around for all the good/bad Sabean analysis' and found this one...<br /><br />http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/eenie-meenie-miney-mo/<br /><br />There are some flaws in their argument, especially once the pitching first strategy started - some hard luck with Williams, Lowry, Ainsworth & Foppert. <br /><br />But the argument about what a 1st round draft pick can be worth is a good one in my opinion, and no organization should ever deliberately punt their picks. I think this is a very valid criticism of Sabean - penny wise pound foolish. Cheaping MadBum out of 50-100K is insanely stupid, especially coming off the world series. There are arguments on both sides for Cain and the extra year the Gints pulled back, but it will most likely cost them pretty big at the table this year. <br /><br />I do love this article though... "It'll be interesting to see what he does"... turns into Big Time Timmy Jim a k a "The Franchise". That is hitting a home run, under pressure.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-9681807126553346242011-12-10T09:07:36.251-08:002011-12-10T09:07:36.251-08:002009: our OF is Lewis, Rowand and Winn. Lewis is ...2009: our OF is Lewis, Rowand and Winn. Lewis is one of your favorite subjects, he had a lot of potential but never could put it all together. Rowand got off to a similar hot start but faded badly. Winn was a good solid role player but overpaid for his average production and that was his last year here. The IF was Renteria, which turned out to be a pretty bad signing based on injuries (although he did play 123 games) and declining skills. Sandoval had his awesome season. Burriss started and then got hurt, Uribe took the reins. And the 1B was Ishikawa. Molina was asked to do more than was really reasonable, and yes, the offense stunk it up.<br /><br />So what's the problem there? Lewis Ishikawa and Burriss all got the most PT at their positions. It didn't work so well. Rowand and Renteria were high priced mistakes. Bengie was overtaxed, Sandoval was awesome and Winn was OK on the way out. They DID play the kids. It almost worked out that year despite the offensive struggles. The trade for F Sanchez tanked for the year, and Garko was a non factor. But you have the hints of the 2010 season - Uribe and Torres taking over.<br /><br />2010 and 2011 we know pretty well. I think the biggest factor is the bad endings at Shortstop. I think they pow-wowed back and forth, back and forth and decided no more grab the old vet. We're going to take our lumps with Crawford. <br /><br />I didn't hear this myself, but i read that Kuiper was on KNBR recently and basically said he talked to the entire pitching staff and to a man they were really bummed when Crawford went down for Cabrera. Right now I think Krukow is more the company man, I really listen to what Kuiper says between the lines, he has a pretty funny dry sense of humor and you can pick up little things. That speaks volumes to me. And it really supports my theory that they screwed the pooch by rushing out for Tejada and then trading for Ocab. Yes, you can throw all the Crawford struggling bat stats at me for the reason to replace, but I'm not going to agree with you because its was better to have one great skill than 2 marginal ones in this case. Sabean went back to the well of grab a vet, and it didn't turn out. An underrated part of the terrible injuries was Fontenot going down when Posey did. It screwed with his bat when he got back, and it necessitated the Keppinger trade, which further weakened the defense. I think I said this before, it won't show up in a stat sheet because of Homer official scorers, but Ocab absolutely destroyed us in Atlanta with his defense, and that really started the slide. <br /><br />But we can only beat ourselves up so much over the past, you really have to look to the future. The Giants have players coming up who are much better than the discards from the past few years. Lefty put it really well, the schizophrenia of the lunatic fringe - Play the kids! No lousy vets! you're playing the kids? We want vets! The good ones! You can't have it both ways.<br /><br />Fans are being way too hard on Crawford, underestimating Posey and misunderstanding Belt. What I see from the offseason is the Brain Trust learning from last years mistakes: no greybeard at short, Huff called out and on a short leash, clearing out the logjam in the OF. I wish they'd have a better plan with Zito, but there are hints. While the false ceiling on the budget sucks, and RDF is a total bunch of BS, the team itself is very interesting. The utility roll, the backup catcher and the 5th starter are issues, but those are things you can work through. I see enough issues with the FA market that I don't really mind them sidestepping it. But a couple more tweaks would make sense to me, so the budget does annoy me. I think I'm working off the Moreno Pujols shock/envy though, and getting back to the season coming up.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-91239491809208496232011-12-10T09:07:22.781-08:002011-12-10T09:07:22.781-08:00OGC - I think you're talking about this one th...OGC - I think you're talking about this one that was written shortly after the Omar signing:<br />http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/inside-the-mind-of-brian-sabean/<br /><br />One thing thats funny is even when its a complementary piece on whatever move Sabey Sabes makes the writer has to throw some digs. Its like you don't want to ruin your interwebz street cred by being too positive about a Sabean move. <br /><br />I've adopted Beane's apparent nickname for Sabean, I think its funny. Haven't seen the movie yet, wanted to get to see it on the big screen but the rug rats run interference. Its supremely ironic to me the adoration to Beane and the scorn of Sabean. The defensive measures, the vets, all copied badly. And it always comes back to scouting and draft pick order. The Giants did a very good job of hitting on great picks in successive years, extremely hard to do. It saved Savvy Sabes job, that's for sure. <br /><br />I share your belief that obp for the sake of obp alone is not a good measure. Do I detect a little dislike of PTB in your writing? As long as there is power, I think having a patient guy who either ropes the ball or K's is OK. You don't want a lot of high K's in the lineup, but you can tolerate it under certain circumstances. I do agree as a rule you need the ball put in play.<br /><br />One issue I have with the whole "league worst offense" for 5 of 6 years type hand wringing is that it includes some truly awful teams, 2007-8 especially. If you just grab the past 3 years, all winning seasons, it changes the narrative quite a bit. The Giants decided for PR and butts in the seats that they couldn't go scorched earth. That was a mistake, yes, and they overpaid for very marginal players. And are still working off that hangover.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-11531562428766291572011-12-10T00:10:34.321-08:002011-12-10T00:10:34.321-08:00Yeah, been waiting for the cries for Hanley Ramire...Yeah, been waiting for the cries for Hanley Ramirez - I'm with Shankbone, he's bad news.<br /><br />And I may well be remembering wrong about Feliz. Or might have bought into hype, I don't know.<br /><br />Nothing more, except I'm an Ozzie fan too - he's the kind of guy baseball doesn't make anymore. Pure entertainment. He may not last out the year with Loria, but he won't go quietly. Ozzie's cool.<br /><br />Good point to ponder, OGC, about putting the ball in play. An example of how even K/BB only tells you part of the story.marcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-14136975398813305872011-12-09T23:34:59.373-08:002011-12-09T23:34:59.373-08:00Shankbone, as I've noted, the Giants have been...Shankbone, as I've noted, the Giants have been pretty good about leaving spots in the lineup for their better prospects to compete to win a spot.<br /><br />As I've tried to show, Crawford actually made nice strides as a hitter over the season, as well as Belt, but while Belt has greater potential, Crawford, I think, showed more so far in the majors, in terms of zone discipline.<br /><br />About the shift, it only appears to be a shift because now there are actually good position prospects who get close enough to force the issue a bit. The Giants farm system had been sparse, mostly because winning don't give you a lot of potential talent via the draft, it becomes a numbers game. <br /><br />Also, people seem to focus only on the position players side of things, but the Giants did try to create opportunities for their young players to win a spot before, they traded Livan in order to give Ainsworth his shot, they made space for Foppert and Williams. Brian Wilson too, eventually.<br /><br />The main point I'm trying to make is that when the Giants had a prospect who seemed worthy enough to get a chance in the majors, they would keep a spot relatively open, with some talent but not an established starter, to challenge the prospect.<br /><br />The problem with the masses, in my view, is that they have hyped expectations on who is actually good, taking Baseball America's Top 10 as gospel, when it is clearly true that some year's #5 prospect is better than other year's #1 prospect by a mile. <br /><br />They don't understand the overall quality of our prospects, thinking that Brian Dallimore because he hit great in AAA would do well in the majors. Or pumping up on John Bowker and Fred Lewis, but missing out on Pablo Sandoval. Or think that drafting Buster Posey was a mistake because they thought Smoak was better.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-23314560573418824242011-12-09T23:23:24.587-08:002011-12-09T23:23:24.587-08:00The way I see it, Sabean, instead of extolling his...The way I see it, Sabean, instead of extolling his greatness to a Hollywood writer and basking in the glow of his hype, likes to keep his secrets behind his kimino (as he liked to say before). Observing Beane, he's actually been copying some of Sabean's tactics, signing older guys, going after the same pitchers, and, geesh, the number of ex-Giants who end up with Oakland afterward!<br /><br />As I noted, people remember what they want to remember, as a leading analytical website (I think it was the Hardball Times) did some analysis on WAR by age, and what they discovered is that while there is a definite downside to WAR in their 30's, WAR actually goes up in the mid-30's, as there are players who are still good in their 30's. They noted in that article that perhaps Sabean is exploiting one of the undervalued areas of baseball, much like Moneyball did with OBP.<br /><br />I would add that defense is another area under appreciated, but the Giants have proprietary metrics that help their defense. In the Hardball Times annual, they had team defense stats for the Plus/Minus Defensive Runs Saved, and the Giants were consistently among the top teams in defensive runs saved.<br /><br />As Fangraphs analysis has shown, somehow the Giants pitchers know how to avoid giving up home runs. They also have appreciated starters like Rueter, Cain, and Zito, who are capable of pitching well without striking out a lot, plus Cain and Zito's BABIPs are clearly controlled by them, they don't fall under DIPS, which all FIPs and the WARs calculated from them, undervalue their WAR produced as it assumes that their BABIP would regress to the .300 mean.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-21796417628515810862011-12-09T23:12:48.074-08:002011-12-09T23:12:48.074-08:00Here is how I see the low OBP myth among the Naysa...Here is how I see the low OBP myth among the Naysayers.<br /><br />First of all, there are not a lot of high OBP hitters. They cost money, teams know about it now too. The complainers forget that both Alfonzo and Durham were high OBP guys, they were great signings based on what they did before, in that regard. <br /><br />They also forget about players who did well for us in OBP. Jose Cruz Jr, who did very well for us. And Michael Tucker was above average for us too. Huff is also a high OBP guy, for his career too. Omar was also above average for us his first two seasons in OBP. People believe what they want to believe, they focus on the guys who are low OBP, like Marquis Grissom or that Bowker wasn't "given enough chances".<br /><br />People forget that Felipe Alou would talk about OBP as a key attribute to look for in hitters, and how he wanted them up high in the lineup, but they would rather demonize him as a someone who loves hitters who hack at the ball.<br /><br />People think OBP is the be-all and end-all, but forget about the other crucial part of the run scoring equation: driving in runs. How do you do that? Most run creation formulas use some form of OBP as the mechanism in the formula to represent scoring by getting on base. The ying to that yang is SLG, to drive in the runners who are on base, and some form of that is represented in the formula as well.<br /><br />That is why a high BA is important. A high BA contributes not only to OBP, but also to SLG, as the base under the ISO. Walks are a good sign of a good hitter, particularly relative to the strikeouts he gets, but all people look at is the guys walks, ignoring his BA, ignoring his SLG, other than nothing if he hits homers or not.<br /><br />They forget that strikeouts is a horribly invaluable result in baseball. It not only creates an out, but there is no advancement of the runners, and almost zero chance of an error to get you on-base.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-68830483959099414492011-12-09T22:56:58.286-08:002011-12-09T22:56:58.286-08:00No worries dude.
Hey, a blurb to set the record s...No worries dude.<br /><br />Hey, a blurb to set the record straight: <br /><br />Brewers shortstop Alex Gonzalez told Spanish-language sports talk radio show Los Cronistas in Venezuela that he had offers from the Giants and the Mets but that he chose to sign with Milwaukee because he wanted to be a starter<br /><br />The Giants are showing a lot of faith in their younger guys. Not only Crawford, but Belt & Pill/Burriss. This is very interesting to me. I'm noticing a more sparse approach - last couple years there's been a lot of bodies. I'm thinking of our OF mainly on that one.<br /><br />Rowand was a good hitter - and I expected better results, I really think that was the juice in his early years, and the absence hampered his abilities a lot. Once he had to start early to catch up to fastballs, the curve became a complete achilles. Couple that with an absolute refusal to get coached up and he slowly made himself onto my bad giants hall of fame list.<br /><br />I remember seeing the defense metric - smart asses like me immediately make Commodore 64 jokes and the like. Ah, its all in good fun. Feels good to be clear of Warrior Spirit. I have a soft spot for Burrell but the defense and mobility was a big compromise. And Torres struggles led to Rowand's ABs. Cody is a streaky dude, and his injuries and timing were off, never got that torrid streak going. So we'll see how it goes this year. I think they decided ultimately to avoid Beltran so as to avoid a logjam. Decided the defense regression/injury risk was too great. <br /><br />Don Carlos will not be stealing bases much anymore, that is for sure. Lefty did some interesting Bill James lineup work. And then just threw up a "get me Beltran" post. I understand that, its very tempting to have a better bat. But there is serious injury risk and defensive downgrade as well as baserunning downgrade, even if he has been stellar in the past. And then the Rainy Day Crew and their sad tidings. But the consistency is very tempting, for sure. Reading those lineup projections is a good way to forget about the nice swing and get ready for next year. Only projections though.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-67529936207229648902011-12-09T17:15:06.850-08:002011-12-09T17:15:06.850-08:00Sorry Shankbone, I should have been clearer. You ...Sorry Shankbone, I should have been clearer. You did not call the deal insane. You called me insane.<br /><br />:^)<br /><br />Actually, you and DrB challenged me on the Sheriff Ned blame for the trade, and that was all I was referring to with regards to you.<br /><br />I then was trying to note why I'm trying to analyze who actually did the trade, because a lot of naysayers point to that trade.<br /><br />But it all got muddled, my apologies.<br /><br />We definitely would have been high bidder on Lee, but caution on that regard that the overbid might have been taking taxes into consideration.<br /><br />Rowand actually was a good hitter outside of Philly as well, I thought he would be able to translate his hitting to AT&T because a lot of it was gap power, plus AT&T don't affect RHB as much. Not that he was that great, but to the point some naysayers say, he was a hitter built for AT&T, with gap power.<br /><br />FYI, Neukom noted in early press conferences that the Giants did have sabers on-board and that they had developed their own proprietary defensive metrics for their internal evaluations. But not much was ever made about that in the press.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-42905663110952945212011-12-09T15:55:00.885-08:002011-12-09T15:55:00.885-08:00I was just being silly. Zito to me is a mental mi...I was just being silly. Zito to me is a mental midget, for all the zen yoga bs he is pretty shallow, like Richards and her silly unwatchable show. Throwaway LA reference (remember - I'm stuck down in the southland right now!)<br /><br />The juicer comment could very well extend to Rowand. I've thrown that down for him and B12 Tejada in earlier discussions here. I think the bigger problem with Alfonso was his back. Its why Hanley Ramirez doesn't look good either. There are rumbles of trade demands so I imagine there'll be some rosterbation on that level. Boo says I, never want that kind of guy around. It should be a three ring circus down there, but there will be some good Ozzie quotes I'm sure. Ozzie cracks me up.<br /><br />I don't think I called the AJ trade insane, it made some sense at the time, its just the prospects ended up showing more promise than the usual Jason Grilli type and Joe Nathan had more sand than anybody could have predicted. My big point is that I think Alou had some clashes/misuses of Nathan and he fell out of favor especially due to the postseason. It was a disaster of a trade for sure, but Liriano has really been a typical flaky lefty, mitigating the level of disaster a lot in my eyes.<br /><br />On the Rowand/Zito fronts. I looked up some hardballtimes article, the consensus on BZ was 5/75 abouts. I would consider 2 more years and 50MM more slightly insane. Grantland had a piece on Boras' big binder and how it messed with Zito's head. Interesting read. Rowand was terrible with his conditioning for sure OGC, but you are right, he actually started out most seasons hitting pretty well. The thing that kills me is we overpaid on the career year in a hitters park. He really had false power numbers. I do think he was a juicer though as well.<br /><br />Marc I think we were the high bidders on the Soriano/Lee deals, and they just used it to go elsewhere. But the point about the deals you avoid is a good one. And I'll give OGC the point that Zito really isn't a guy that Sabean would want to go out and grab, that part doesn't make a lot of sense to me.<br /><br />For all the hype that Beane and Jack Z of the Mariners have received for using UZR, their defenses haven't been good and their offenses have been terrible. Sabean has done a good job with defensive metrics. I'm half convinced they have some crazy modeling they consult. Or just very very good scouting and defensive positioning. That's one of the reasons I was so frustrated with the Tejada signing though, it made no sense defensively.<br /><br />Read a good comment - one of the reasons the Gints end up with low obp and seem to be evaluating on BA (to the dismay of the saber crowd) is they're looking for value - everybody's after the high obp types, we'll go dumpster dive in low obp. I really wouldn't have minded Alex Gonzo as the caddy, but he most likely didn't want anything to do with it. Crawford rolling without a net? Or is it just more dekeing? I get the feeling this is a genuine hard line. Very short sighted to me, they could use a couple more pieces. But I'm pretty happy with the team. The club though, needs to do some work with the starting pitchers immediately.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-50733229921041526522011-12-09T14:34:37.426-08:002011-12-09T14:34:37.426-08:00Thanks Marc.
I had seen a rumor once that Alfonzo...Thanks Marc.<br /><br />I had seen a rumor once that Alfonzo had used steroids, obviously, don't know if that is so or not, but I saw it rumored in a number of places, particularly Mets fans, so I felt OK at least mentioning it.<br /><br />Well, that Mets trading away Kazmir never made sense at any level one could think of. :^)<br /><br />But I get your point, and I agree that one has to remove the benefit of hindsight when analyzing.<br /><br />Oh, the "you" was meant for Shankbone regarding AJ, unfortunately blogger limits my comments (the nerve! :^) and so I split up my comment, forgetting to change the language so that it is clearer.<br /><br />The trade for AJ was not insanity - in fact, if anyone cared to check, BP, in one of their rare moments, praised the Giants for that deal in their commentary on AJ, saying the old saberl-rubric that relievers are fungible and easily replaced. Really, All-Star catcher who plays good defense and hits well, that's a good trade.<br /><br />But since the Sabean Naysayer use that as an example of why Sabean has to go, that's why I even care to distinguish that the deal was made by Sheriff Ned.<br /><br />Rowand was too much, I think, I'm pretty sure I wrote that when it happened, the only way it made sense was if Rowand continued hitting as well as he did the year before plus play good defense. There was no margin for error. And I have no problem with teams taking such chances, only if they take too many of them.<br /><br />However, he clearly was a good hitter when he was on, and he was that first 4 months as a Giants player, people forget that but he was killing the ball, but then he ended the season cold (because he was out of condition) after which it was pretty much a downhill ride after that, with only a few ups.<br /><br />Unfortunately, speaking of professionals, he was NOT professional enough to go through a proper, professional fitness program after that season, didn't realize it was bad enough until after his second season, then all he did was ride his bike, like, 60 miles a day to get into "shape", then did that again last off-season.<br /><br />Given that most ballplayers know their stats pretty well, and should know what is good or not, then maybe a professional would acknowledge that is why he's not playing so much anymore, and just sit down, shut up, and be ready to contribute when asked. That is what a professional does.<br /><br />Or retire and don't accept any more money, like Mark McGwire did for the Cardinals. Either way works for me.<br /><br />Good points about swinging and missing on those players. Juan Pierre too, reportedly, that pitcher the A's got too, the one who got a ticket going 100 MPH in the East Bay (they eventually snookered LA into taking him AND his salary).<br /><br />I wasn't aware that we could have traded Feliz for an A+ arm, never heard that rumor. And frankly, I would wonder if that was a real or not, at no point in his prospect years were he that highly regarded a prospect, other than by Giants fans who saw his AAA stats that one year (and before we found out that he was actually two years older).<br /><br />Astute observation about politics existing anywhere and everywhere, that is certainly something that I think many of the Sabean complainers don't understand, probably because they haven't been in the work world long (or ever).<br /><br />I was wondering where the Denise Richards comment came from. FYI, Shankbone, Zito got married over the weekend, so I don't think he'll be hanging with starlets and wannabes anymore.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-30235965986770699592011-12-09T10:12:02.065-08:002011-12-09T10:12:02.065-08:00I hope I even absorbed half of what was posted sin...I hope I even absorbed half of what was posted since yesterday...<br /><br />A question - Alfonzo a "juicer"? It's a shame that one has to ask this question, but do you mean steroids or booze?<br /><br />I can't really add much to all that's been posted, but a point - I see the phrase "made sense on paper". Well, don't virtually all trades? One has to remove the benefit of hindsight when analyzing these things. Okay, Rowand was paid too much, but it wasn't insanity. Zito wasn't insanity. I don't know who OGC meant by "you" in the comment on A.J., but I don't think that was insanity either. Made quite a bit of sense, actually.<br /><br />The skill of a good GM though is to see beyond what looks good on paper, and be right more often than wrong. So, I see Soriano and Lee mentioned... there's a success there in NOT overbidding for them. Another I remember that the blog crowd had a coronary over was not signing Chone Figgins. There's multiple bullets dodged in the Sabean years, and I don't think most appreciate that - they forget.<br /><br />A mistake might be... when Feliz was deemed "untouchable" - now, the point is well made about player development that as that goes, Feliz was a success - had a long MLB career. Had value. That he didn't live up to his press is not an actual failure (though I can criticize him, I suppose). The misstep was that he should have been trading for an A+ arm or whatever - and there again, is the difference between on paper and the benefit of hindsight.<br /><br />I don't know about all the speculation about Agent Ned. But I do believe that you sign a Rowand, it's not ultimately Sabean's decision. So certainly there may be a bit of "who had Magowan's ear" in the background - one forgets that the politics and personalities that go on in the smallest companies still go on when you're talking hundreds of millions. These people are not more mature or wiser than anybody else - maybe about baseball, but it's still first and foremost a business.<br /><br />Oh, and Kent was a prick and that's all there is to say about that, but I will think lustful thoughts about Denise Richards - the image is much appreciated.marcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-76442564613588991972011-12-08T20:25:44.146-08:002011-12-08T20:25:44.146-08:00Oh boy, OCG sharpening his pitchfork and searching...Oh boy, OCG sharpening his pitchfork and searching for matches...<br /><br />I said early on this might become a mini-Vlad situation. While I hate those quotes, it is extremely short sited to publicly hold the line on a budget when you have sellouts and merchandising. You look cheap, which is hard to do with a 130MM budget, but they've done it.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-79234883328281250242011-12-08T17:46:05.698-08:002011-12-08T17:46:05.698-08:00Wow, Angel's sign Pujols for $245M over 10 yea...Wow, Angel's sign Pujols for $245M over 10 years. Cards fans will be crying into their Bud's tonight. <br /><br />That's fine with me, one less contender for an NL playoff spot in 2012, unless they can sign Fielder instead. Or, they could move Berkman to 1B (he really shouldn't be playing OF) and sign Beltran. But Pujols is unreplaceable and they barely made it into the playoffs in 2011. That 2011 World Championship glow will probably have to last a long while, who knows when they get their next chance now.<br /><br />Oh, and the Angels signed CJ Wilson for 5 years, $77.5M. Nice to have a billionaire owner willing to spend the moolah, eh? Now that the Giants are back to their pre-Neukom ways, I'm back to my "get new owners" stance again. <br /><br />I will love them with all my heart for keeping the Giants here and for building a beautiful park, but this is unacceptable. <br /><br />That Beltran, now you see him, now "you know, he wasn't really affordable" crap just don't fly for me. They should not have led on fans like me like that, they should have been much more honest up front, I would not have been as upset as I am now for sticking out my neck for them. I get enough crap for being a homer, lap boy.<br /><br />I would be just as happy if Johnson just bought the rest of the Giants he don't own (he now reportedly owns 25%), and maybe he has a child who is a big Giants fan who would run the team like Arte does in LA at Anaheim.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-87983632366718168732011-12-08T17:28:29.684-08:002011-12-08T17:28:29.684-08:00LIFO (though liked reading thru your stuff, will c...LIFO (though liked reading thru your stuff, will comment, if any, later).<br /><br />I am like an elephant about slights, one of my faults. So I'll never forget David Bell's two-faced response. And Sabean seems to be a similar guy, and hopefully he learns to not be like that too (but it's hard).<br /><br />I liked Pedro Feliz too. I think the frustration was because they thought he was more than he was because of his great AAA season (a problem that many of them have). I accepted that he was what he was, and that was still pretty good in a number of ways, as you described him.<br /><br />I think it also plays to the "my guy is the best or I want to get the best" mentality that seems to pervade many of these boards. I understand that on the surface, but reject that because obviously only the Yankees could ever come close to that. There is a budget, we must accept tradeoffs.<br /><br />However, the way some of these people act, it seems like they don't understand that there are consequences to their actions. They don't realize that it is like the boy plugging up the holes in the dike, if you go plug up one hole, another hole is going to open up.<br /><br />Cruz, I'm sorry, I understand mistakes happen, but to be that close, plus I didn't think that he couldn't be replaced, and as it was, he probably would have costed more than we paid for Tucker anyway.<br /><br />I felt the same way about Candy Maldonado, I'm sure Boston felt the same way about Billy Buckner, I was willing to move on, no big loss.<br /><br />About Kent, I don't consider his behavior to be professional. <br /><br />I don't expect him to sing "kumbayah" and have friendly meals with all his teammates. But neither should he be instigating a shoving match during the middle of a game either, or complaining about a fellow player during the game, Bonds was much more professional in that regards. <br /><br />A professional also considers how the loss of his services would affect his team. If Eugenio Velez hurts his leg popping a wheelie, he wouldn't be missed (and some fans would have cheered), but losing Kent's services would have severely hurt our chances to win, particularly if it was for a lengthy period of time.<br /><br />Bonds was much more professional than Kent ever was.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-16753457138642312862011-12-08T14:33:07.033-08:002011-12-08T14:33:07.033-08:00Good points OGC. The ranch appeal, no income tax,...Good points OGC. The ranch appeal, no income tax, very powerful incentives for sure. Complex situation. Jeff Kent is an odd duck. He never got along with anybody. Just played the game like a professional. The other thing that we forget, I think everybody was fed up with Bonds... until he stepped to the plate. Its easy now to look back however you look back, but at the time it was getting old. Keith Law floated the info that Halladay was offered for our guys. Well, yeah, great trade. At the time... He would have been strung up. Those are the what-ifs you have to move on from. Like that damn Jose Guillen argument. He played 42 games for the G's. Get over it already. Sabean threw him up to see if he'd stick like Burrell was doing. That whole, if it works, keep doing it til it doesn't strategy. Sabean loves that one. <br /><br />And thanks for bringing up David Bell. That was extremely weak sauce, and we forget these things. When DrB talks of being in on fielding I think he's talking a lot about Feliz, Visquel and Metheny. And Cruz Jr. Feliz couldn't ever figure out the curve ball. I was never as frustrated with him as other fans. He played some sweet D. And had a nice bit of pop for teams dumb enough to throw him heat.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-54158608167925543142011-12-08T14:11:50.106-08:002011-12-08T14:11:50.106-08:00So that's sort of what I think. Its hard to g...So that's sort of what I think. Its hard to go over it all again and again, but I think its important to see the progression of events, and how things sort of tumbled down. He made a series of less impactful moves as Bonds played out. And a few of them became disasters - oh damn I forgot Benitez. And only barely touched on the draft picks. Oh well, another passanovante.<br /><br />Regarding my doc buddy, yeah, I shouldn't post it on anything public, my call. It's just an aside. I actually asked him about Pagan this morning, waiting to hear back. Baggs had some nice tweets up about him, he didn't sound like a cancer from that, and from what I've seen either. Sportswriters are a catty bunch, and you know how easy it is for them to get snippy if a player doesn't give them the access they think they deserve. Crazy Horse seems like a good bet. I proposed trading for him for the past month, I'd better believe it right?<br /><br />I've read all your essays on building/rebuilding. They are really interesting. Its harder than it looks, requires luck, and the best examples haven't had the pressure of paying for a publicly sponsored stadium. I bash ownership a bit more than you do, but I do appreciate its pretty unique in MLB for this to have gone down. Of course they now own a gigantic asset and have increased their investment seven fold easily.<br /><br />Good trading ideas OGC. Watching Arte Moreno go crazy, just like when he lowered beer prices (hah) is bittersweet. I'd love to have an owner like that. but we don't right now, so why lose sleep over it? At least this is a huge shot across the Doyers bow, and they are going to be reeling from it. <br /><br />Oh, and one last thought, because I think a lot of Giant fans would feel very different if we had a pitcher locked up right now: any opening bid has to be very close to the Zito money. 6/110 or something. Why? They look over their shoulder, say "You've been paying that stiff how much?" and then... Yes, you can make all sorts of rationaizations about how to approach. But anything but "we screwed up with Zito, here's close to that" as an opening woo is BS. I don't blame Timmy's camp at all for saying 8 years. The Giants offering 4 is a joke. They should immediately go back with a very serious 6 year offer and woo their way to getting it done. And here's the rub: Sabean is not a very good people person, nor a woo'er. But sometimes (as we've just seen with Pujols) retaining your talent means "What do you want and we'll get as humanely close as we can". Looking at what a 2nd tier pitcher like CJ wilson got and what the Marlins offered gives me shivers. Give them 7/127. Gotta break up the jinx on that terrible contract number. but sooner than later, or you're really threatening the fans goodwill.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-74287832269557726132011-12-08T14:11:01.148-08:002011-12-08T14:11:01.148-08:00Third layer, not resigning Kent is definitely a di...Third layer, not resigning Kent is definitely a disaster, but as you note, it is unclear what was the reason for the divorce. <br /><br />Frankly, given all the hate that Kent sent towards SF afterward, even if, as he says now, it was all one big joke to him that was taken out of context, he did sent it along and despite what he calls now a misunderstanding, he did not take any effort back then to correct that view, it was not until he wanted to be associated with the team he is best known for that he started mending fences. I think he just hated being around Bonds, for whatever the reason is. He probably wasn't happy about how Truck-gate went down either.<br /><br />I would also add that being near his ranch in Texas was probably a large factor in him wanting to get away as well, perhaps even bigger than getting away from Bonds or SF. I know that is why (luckily) Carlos Lee told SF to stop bother bidding, even though they were willing to give more money, he had a ranch out there too (and with no state tax, versus CA having one of the highest in the nation, a 10% bonus on top).<br /><br />So I give Sabean a pass on this one. Yeah, it was a mistake to sign Alfonzo. But it would have been a bigger mistake to go with Feliz without any idea of how he would work out, that could have sunk the season before it started, and, again, his edict from ownership was to keep the train going. <br /><br />At that point, people were clamoring for Jerome Williams, Foppert, and Ainsworth. Ultimately, we could have traded them, that would be the correct decision in hindsight, but they were bright prospects and the only way to get a 3B worth anything would be to give up on one of them. At the time, it would have been a mistake to trade any of them to get a decent 3B.<br /><br />To me, I think the only player that Sabean was really fed up with was Bonds. But he had to bite his tongue. <br /><br />Though I would add any player who tried to play him, like when Shooter tried to leverage Sabean into a big contract, Sabean went out and got Nen instead. And that was behavioral fedupness, I'm sure he probably liked Beck as a person.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-8147320126281631572011-12-08T14:10:51.353-08:002011-12-08T14:10:51.353-08:00If I haven't said so yet, thanks for your thou...If I haven't said so yet, thanks for your thoughtfulness Shankbone.<br /><br />I'll jump to your latest comment first (I should be working :^).<br /><br />For me, there are, like Shrek said, many layers to the onion that is determining whether a move was a mistake or not, context being a huge factor in it.<br /><br />The way I see it, Sabean was charged with keeping the Bonds train going. So even if he would have preferred, lets say, to go with Feliz at 3B and what ever happens, happens (which he was freer to do in recent seasons when he left spots for Niekro, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Schierholtz/Bowker, Bumgarner to battle for), I assume ownership's edict was to compete for the playoffs. You don't compete for the playoffs starting an unproven (and unheralded) 3B prospect like Feliz at 3B, you spend money on a free agent.<br /><br />The problem was double that season. Not only was Kent leaving, but then that liar David Bell ("don't worry about me opting out...", though that worked out in the end in that fashion as he stunk afterward) opted out of his contract, leaving the Giants to replace both Alfonso and Kent.<br /><br />First layer, Durham and Alfonzo were mistakes to sign, they were both busts in terms of what we got versus what was expected of them. I understand that.<br /><br />Second layer, Sabean not allowed to go with rookies, expected to buy free agents to fill two positions. Durham was a great sign in that case, proven leadoff guy, great offensive force even if defensively challenged (and I've heard rumors that he was mentally challenged as well), and had played over 150 games his whole career, no extended DL stint.<br /><br />Alfonzo was a risky sign because he had been injured, there were rumors that he had been a juicer, worse, back problems usually don't get better. But the money was not outrageous at that time (on per year basis; problem was length), and he frankly was the best available free agent at 3B. Given that the objective was not to avoid a mistake but to try your best to keep things going, the signing was a success.<br /><br />FYI, I always considered this a Sabean sign, didn't know Ned was the lead on this.<br /><br />And as much as people want to complain about the Giants not understanding OBP, both Durham and Alfonzo were known more for their OBP ability than their slugging, they always conveniently forget that in their rants.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-23403219489155872362011-12-08T14:00:37.931-08:002011-12-08T14:00:37.931-08:00If you look at the non-signings in 2005 along with...If you look at the non-signings in 2005 along with Zito you see the Giants try and sign Soriano and Lee. It didn't work out and Sabean was furious at being used to inflate other teams offers. Instead of that just being part of the game, ever since he has decided he needs to be a bulletproof monk and keeps things even more guarded. I think you can agree with that part. He is notoriously private, and I think its fair to say he's extremely thin-skinned. When viewed from that angle, 2006 rolls around, the Giants make an offer to Gary Matthews Jr (nice feel good story right?) for too much money based on a career season and he goes to the Angels! At this point I think Sabean snaps. The Phils had an offer of at least 3 and most likely 4 years out to Rowand. There was definite demand for him. And here's the rub, what smart asses don't realize about FA. Sometimes you have to woo, and sometimes you have to go way over to get something done. At this point the park is getting a huge pitchers rep, hitters don't want to go there. I think that is the ultimate reason we end up with Rowand, in an overpay from 4/40 or so to 5/60. Then the PR post-Bonds we have to get this steroid stink out of here takes over. I think Rowand is the type of player Sabean appreciates, a no-fuss dirt dog. It turns out in the end he wasn't quite the good soldier, but if he didn't keep running his mouth I bet they would have stuck with him. The Giants are loyal to a fault. And a bit too snippy with players out the door, but much better than most teams and markets.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-65314201646803690762011-12-08T13:53:33.729-08:002011-12-08T13:53:33.729-08:00We've had enough on Michael Tucker, I'll l...We've had enough on Michael Tucker, I'll leave sweet Mike alone. The Gints go hard, but come up short as Sabean's white whale Steve Finley hits a damn grand slam in the Cody Ransom game. Well, I'll give you a little dig on Michael Tucker after all - with a slightly less mediocre RF (such as just resigning Cruz even) maybe we win 2 more games or whatever it is and get another shot. As it is, this is the high mark of the Bonds era.<br /><br />Gets hurt the next year, I'm speeding up so dates aren't important here, finely gets Finley for Alfonso in a trade of corpses when he was better off just leaving well enough alone, plays the oldest OF ever (that might not ever be beaten except for PR stunts), and Alou gets his "We're where vets come to die" line in. Bonds gets hurt, and its game set match. 2005 was a bad one.<br /><br />2006 we have the day of reckoning. And here is where the PR angle comes in. Nervous about the crowds dwindling, and not sure about Bonds coming back, the steroid mess brewing full, its a complicated situation, just like Kent 4 years ago. The weirdest thing about Zito, and I know Boras is a magician at times, how in the world did the talks leapfrog from 5 years to 7? I need to go back and read some articles about it, but it just makes no sense. Nobody in their right mind thought Zito was worth that. But it only takes one. And that was Sabean. I have no doubt there were outside considerations. But PeteyM has denied telling him repeatedly to go get Barry Z. It could be CYA, for sure. I stop short of saying Sabean should have stopped it. But it just seems to me the leap in terms is pretty insane. Sabean did get played on that front. I can't see Boras going straight to PeteyM to hammer the details out. Mixed bag, and I should look into it some more.<br /><br />Rowand. I put down something in MCC about this that everybody loved. It was very long winded and I cut off the but... part. I was surprised to see it rec'd. The but part didn't get rec'd.Shankbonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803824507120403397noreply@blogger.com