tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post1280475622958377653..comments2024-02-23T20:49:09.057-08:00Comments on obsessivegiantscompulsive: PQS for Top 7 SP in ERAobsessivegiantscompulsivehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-91378520721397776722006-12-04T08:50:00.000-08:002006-12-04T08:50:00.000-08:00You ae deluding yourself into thinking this team w...You ae deluding yourself into thinking this team will compete or be better than they were last year. They will have the worst defensive outfield in baseball, bar none. Everyone will be one year older and a little more brittle which means that the "lineup" will be a patchwork of substitutes for a lot of the season. I would be very surprised if the starting lineup actually makes more than 90 starts intact. Bonds will need many days off, Roberts has never played 130 games in a season, Durham is a human DL machine, etc. etc., etc. The Aurilia signing would have been good if he was slated to be a super utility guy, not a starter. His numbers were inflated by playing in a bandbox of a park last year. He will struggle to come even close to those numbers here, even playing full time. The Feliz signing........well, that's just speaks for itself.<br /><br />There is no way that you lose Schmidt and replace him with a journeyman and the starting rotation improves. Lastly, I have seen no improvement in the bullpen at all which was a black hole last year.<br /><br />Given all or most of this and the fact that they finished towards the bottom of the pack last year, what could possibly lead you to the conclusion that they will be better than last year? It's nice to hope but let's be a little more realistic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-66077195413781397672006-12-03T08:36:00.000-08:002006-12-03T08:36:00.000-08:00I also don't think it is a foregone conclusion thi...I also don't think it is a foregone conclusion this team finishes 3d or 4th and below 500.<br /> As I posted on McCovey Chrons, Aurelia is a significant upgrade over Sweeney NiekroBrand. I think with the speed and baserunning smarts we have 1-3 in the lineup (+ OBP) we will score more runs next year (in '06 we were, for all practical purposes, tied for 9th in runs scored and 10th for earned runs given up). I think we are moderately improved in run scoring ability and defense (Aurelia better than Sweeney, Hillenbrand, not quite as good as Niekro), Roberts/Linden better than Alou Finley. <br /> The big question now is pitching - replacing Schmidt, Stanton. At least we are rid of Walker and Munter. Worrell, I assume, is coming back (tho I've heard nothing) and we're basically forced to bring back Kline. <br /> Martin makes a good case that Cain can replace Schmidt, everyone moves up and we're a little better with our starters just using our home grown guys (including Morris). The biggest hole I see now is replacing Stanton (and Eyre before him).allfrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03603053163603458876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-32405454708665346052006-12-03T08:24:00.000-08:002006-12-03T08:24:00.000-08:00Yes, Boof, that is the most traditional, and I thi...Yes, Boof, that is the most traditional, and I think bochy is probably a pretty traditional guy. I actually think we should consider Roberts leading off and Bonds hitting 2nd, followed by Durham, Winn, Aurelia (I'd rather hit Aurelia ahead of Winn, but put him behind Winn because Winn is fast and Richie is, uh, not fast), Molina, Feliz (assuming Molina's OBP is significantly higher than Pedro's), Omar. This is sort of the Bill James theory, get Bonds more at bats, AND more at bats w/ a runner on base, particularly a runner like Roberts who is a distraction - as well as a threat to steal not only 1st, if the pitcher ignores him but 3rd as well, especially w/ the Barry shift on. And the Barry shift makes it much easier for Roberts to be knocked in by an out.<br /> And, as far as your Batting order vs my first one, the only dispute is whther Molina hits 8th or more in line with his production. He could hit 6th or 7th if they were to play Alfonzo twice a week instead of just once.allfrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03603053163603458876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-18479025925502223192006-12-03T08:13:00.000-08:002006-12-03T08:13:00.000-08:00The batting order will be:
Roberts
Vizquel
Winn
B...The batting order will be:<br /><br />Roberts<br />Vizquel<br />Winn<br />Bonds<br />Durham<br />Aurilia<br />Feliz<br />Molina<br /><br />Another year of rebuilding lost and another year of 3rd or 4th place with no better than a .500 record. Tragic. It's time for Sabean to go after another failure.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-33587143954600309562006-12-03T00:42:00.000-08:002006-12-03T00:42:00.000-08:00BTW, your comments on my batting orders?BTW, your comments on my batting orders?allfrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03603053163603458876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-11893873529938333502006-12-03T00:41:00.000-08:002006-12-03T00:41:00.000-08:00Hello Martin -
I don't know where I saw the stor...Hello Martin -<br /> I don't know where I saw the story that indicated that Richie MIGHT accept arb. I think I was more speculating that he might, since the money would be so much better.<br /> I am really glad he signed with us. That is a very cheap price for the type of player he is. <br /> I did a little reaearch on him compared to other NL 1b hitters and he ranks 10th out of 24, based on BA. I also list the OBP, but don't rank them by that stat. The top 24 1b men does not, interestingly, include any giants 1b - Sweeney, Hilly, Niekro are all far down the list. Additionally, while he doesn't have great range, he does have good hands and, I expect, will save a lot of errors by handling bad throws.<br /> I do really disagree with you on bonds, and his signability. Look at TO, Iverson, J Giambi, Sheffield. If a guy produces, some team will want him, especially if he is the missing link. I do think an arrest/indictment is a serious concern. I think a team can protect itself thru their contract, but that doesn't protect them from the mid season distraction as well as the loss of a key player, if it should happen.<br /> I think he has to get at least Sheffield money, and I think he'll get $12-15 mil. I actually think he would be smart to take an incentive contract. Not like Thomas, but a base of say $8 mil, with incentives that could bump it up to $18 mil. I am assuming, despite the restrictions on perfromance contracts, that a contract such as this is possible.<br /> Now that, other than LF, the position playing team is pretty well constructed, I would be very surprised to see Sabean trade Lowerey, say, for a bat. This, after all, is one of the primary positives in signing Bonds - don't have to trade prospects nor give up draft picks.allfrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03603053163603458876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-17232447412782490652006-12-02T23:58:00.000-08:002006-12-02T23:58:00.000-08:00OK, finally saw the diary in MCC on that. I think...OK, finally saw the diary in MCC on that. I think the fact that the rumored deal for Aurila has jumped from the $6-7M range to $8M is a sign that the Giants bumped up the contract to keep Aurilia. (I see wilriv beat me to that thought...).<br /><br />That would make sense, the article says that Aurilia hopes to get $3.5M, just make the point moot for him by upping the contract a little.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-15765567159990418302006-12-02T23:05:00.001-08:002006-12-02T23:05:00.001-08:00That one took 3 tries. :^)That one took 3 tries. :^)obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-80156017771445623132006-12-02T23:05:00.000-08:002006-12-02T23:05:00.000-08:00Where did you hear about Aurilia? I have checked ...Where did you hear about Aurilia? I have checked news sources all over, including the Reds official MLB website and I see nothing about Aurilia accepting the Reds arb offer. Most state that the Giants are close to a 2-year deal for $8M for Aurilia.<br /><br />Money might not totally motivate Richie anyway, he would be the main starter at 1B with us whereas the Reds would only use him part-time, plus if they use him as utility, I think the arbitrator might go with a lower figure because of that and give him a deal similar to DeRosa's, who wasn't a starter either. Why risk that and skip a guaranteed 2 year? Plus he clearly wants to return, perhaps his wife really likes the area or something.<br /><br />FYI: Giants don't offer Bonds arbitration and Bonds's agent cries about how "Barry obviously is not a priority to them." Boo-fricking-hoo, his feelings are hurt because the team don't want to get stuck paying his client a guaranteed $14M, which happens to be what they want in the first place. <br /><br />If 30 teams want him, as Borris claims, be my guest, but he's just shooting smoke into people's faces with his public announcements, now I see why Bonds dumped him for Scott Boras for his last contract before quietly returning to Borris afterward (I suspect he paid Boras a fee to represent him - Boras get name client, Bonds appear to play hardball for new contract - then "re-hire" Borris when that retainer ended). If this is the best he can do to drive up the price for his client, he should give Bonds back his money.<br /><br />As I've been posting at MCC, there's no way other teams are interested in Bonds beyond a contract similar to what Frank Thomas got in 2006, Bonds has the grand jury hanging over his head (what if his training changes his mind and testifies?), he has the IRS chasing after him (for income tax evasion, prison time for sure), he has father time chasing him and one day he will catch him, as he always does, and he has the injury bug chasing him, he could, I don't know, bump his leg against a table, say, and hurt his knee so badly that it needs to be operated on, then an infection could set in - I know, far-fetched, but it could happen. :^D Plus you never know if crazed fans might organize a huge protest against Bonds at every home game, both outside and inside the stadium, these zealots - who you see all over the web - will crawl out of the woodwork and harass the team until they release Bonds. Plus all the negative publicity signing Bonds would create for the team (other than the Giants), that's going to make any team think twice about giving Bonds any more than $5M guaranteed, he would have to accept incentives if he wants more, as there is too much risk the team would eat his salary.<br /><br />Meanwhile, the Giants could afford to beat that figure easily but still keep it under $10M unless he accepts incentives. I don't see how he's not coming back unless that Japanese team which got $51M for Matsuzaka decides to use that money for Bonds (assuming Red Sox sign him; looks like Grand Canyon between the bid of $7M per year and ask of $15M per year.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-71094365442699998982006-12-02T10:17:00.000-08:002006-12-02T10:17:00.000-08:00Kind of disappointing to lose Aurelia, altho I hav...Kind of disappointing to lose Aurelia, altho I have heard both ways, he'll accept arb and he's taking his Giants physical. It would make sense for him to go to arb - he had Durham like numbers. If Feliz gets 5-6 million and Durham gets 7, Aurelia has to get 6-8 million in arb - twice his contract with the Giants.allfrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03603053163603458876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-52170272055167491352006-12-02T02:05:00.000-08:002006-12-02T02:05:00.000-08:00Yeah, that bothers me too. From what I am guessin...Yeah, that bothers me too. From what I am guessing, the password only lasts for a short period, but if you write up a long comment, then the time for it passed and it forces you to enter in another password, whereupon it then works.<br /><br />I wouldn't use it except it drives me crazy whenever those stupid bots places spam posts in my blog. Even since I added this word verification system, spam has dropped to zero here.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23735245.post-85186049400573409002006-12-02T00:15:00.000-08:002006-12-02T00:15:00.000-08:00Excellent, and very interesting, Martin. I do thi...Excellent, and very interesting, Martin. I do think we could be a seim pitching and defense team. W/ Feliz, Omar, Durham (the weak link), Aurelia (good hands, limited range) and Bonds, Roberts, Winn/Linden we have pretty good, but not outstanding defense. <br /> Offensively, we do have some speed (Roberts, Winn, Durham even). WE don't have a # 3 hitter and too many 7 and 8 hitters. I suppose it looks like this:<br />Roberts<br />Omar<br />Winn<br />Bonds<br />Durham<br />Molina?<br />Aurelia<br />Feliz<br />Altho I can' really see Feliz in the 8 hole. How about:<br />Roberts<br />Winn<br />Aurelia<br />Bonds<br />Durham<br />MOlina<br />Feliz<br />Omar<br /> The idea that Feliz ends a lot of innings, and if Omar gets on it sets up the pitcher's bunting.<br /> Anyway, I do think this team can score the same as or a few more runs than the 06 team. I don't see this team, despite the loss of Alou, as significantly weaker. Roberts+Aurelia+Molina+Linden = more offense than Alou+Finley+Alfonzo+Niekro/Hilly/Sweeney.<br /> My preference is to start Lincecum in AA and, if he's doing well, move him to AAA at the break (July).<br /> I guess, since we haven't spent all that much money, we will bring in a fairly expensive FA starter (Schmidt, Maddux). This is due partly to the fact we need Hennessey/Correia both in the pen and for insurance for Sanchez. WE also need two fairly expensive late relievers, altho I am not completely against getting just one (Kline, say) and using our own prosepects for '07 to see how/if any develop.<br /> Finally, if neither the Dodgers or Padres get Ramirez, this team could well compete for the West.<br /> BTW, I am curious, it always takes two tries to get my comment accepted by your site. Know why?allfrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03603053163603458876noreply@blogger.com